Ore DailyMetals & mining headlines

Fri, Oct 30Thu Oct 29 5:30 AM ET – Fri Oct 30 5:45 AM ET
Ore PleaseDrill hits ›
Ore Daily BriefRio can lose 45% of Oyu Tolgoi and still make its guide. Capstone needs its best quarter.Q4 math after Thursday's reports: Rio has slack, Vale, Eldorado and Capstone must speed up. At today's prices Russia's windfall tax would hit gold and platinum, not nickel. Today: Cameco before the open, USTR maritime comments due 5 PM ET.
−45%Oyu Tolgoi Q4 drop Rio can absorb and still hit 800 kt63 kt vs Q3's 114 kt, other mines flat
+22%Capstone Q4 vs Q3 needed at its low end55.1 kt; Q3 was 45.2 kt
+16%Gold vs its 2025 average, past Russia's 10% trigger$3,986 vs $3,440; nickel +3%, palladium −14%

Today

Q4 math

  • Rio can lose 45% of Oyu Tolgoi and still make 800 kt. With its other mines flat at Q3's 91 kt, the 154 kt Q4 floor (see the Oyu Tolgoi Perspective) needs 63 kt from Oyu Tolgoi, against Q3's 114 kt. Underground ore carried about 70% of the mill's copper in Q3 (per that Perspective), so the pit alone at Q3 rates would supply roughly 34 kt.
  • Vale's low end is a flat year. Nine-month iron ore is 242.4 Mt (69.7 Mt, 84.3 Mt and 88.4 Mt by quarter). The 335 Mt low end needs 92.6 Mt in Q4, 5% above Q3, and would land just under 2025's 336 Mt.
  • Capstone needs its best quarter of the year. Nine-month copper is 144,939 t; the 200 kt low end needs 55.1 kt in Q4, 22% above Q3's 45,218 t and 6% above Q2's 51,759 t.
  • Eldorado's low end needs a 7% lift. Nine-month gold of 311,325 oz leaves 113.7–163.7 koz for Q4 under the new 425–475 koz range: 7% above Q3's 106,351 oz at the low end, 54% at the top.
Q4 2026 output needed to reach each end of 2026 guidance, compared with Q3 2026 output (Ore Daily calculation). Rio Tinto copper (800–870 kt): low end 25% below Q3, top 9% above. Vale iron ore (335–345 Mt): low end 5% above Q3, top 16% above. Eldorado gold (425–475 koz): low end 7% above Q3, top 54% above. Capstone copper (200–230 kt): low end 22% above Q3, top 88% above.Q4 2026 output needed to reach each end of 2026 guidance, compared with Q3 2026 output (Ore Daily calculation). Rio Tinto copper (800–870 kt): low end 25% below Q3, top 9% above. Vale iron ore (335–345 Mt): low end 5% above Q3, top 16% above. Eldorado gold (425–475 koz): low end 7% above Q3, top 54% above. Capstone copper (200–230 kt): low end 22% above Q3, top 88% above.

Copper

Precious

  • Gold has given back its year. Spot at $3,986 is 12% below gold's 2026 average of $4,553 and 16% above 2025's $3,440 (gold data); it is 0.46% lower than a year ago.

Critical minerals

  • Quota talk hasn't reached the nickel price. Nickel at $15,588 is 10% under its 2026 average of $17,323 and 3% above 2025's $15,161 (nickel data). Indonesia mined 2.6 Mt of 3.9 Mt in 2025, 67% of world supply (USGS).

Policy and trade

  • At today's prices, Russia's tax hits gold and platinum, not nickel or palladium. Against 2025 averages (gold, PGMs, nickel), gold at $3,986 is up 16%, platinum at $1,458 14%, nickel at $15,588 3%, and palladium at $992.50 is down 14%. The 2027 trigger is a 10% rise.

Next

  • Wed Nov 4, after the close — Lundin Mining Q3; call Thu Nov 5, 9:00 AM ET. The next Chile copper producer to report after Capstone's acid hit.
  • Thu Nov 5 — Codelco extraordinary shareholders' meeting (notice). It reviews the inconsistent 2024–25 output figures; Codelco has not yet put a tonnage on them.

Sources: Ore Daily digest, Oct 30 · USGS MCS 2026 via Ore Daily data pages · Rio Tinto Q3 2026 production results · Capstone Copper Q3 2026 results · Eldorado Gold Q3 2026 results · Vale 1Q26 production report

Ore Daily analysis of public data. Figures are as reported by the sources.

Top 5

1
Rio Tinto halts underground work at Oyu Tolgoi after a seismic event, while Chinese border checks cut its concentrate exports by about 70%Perspective
The event struck along a rock fracture zone at about 6 PM Mongolia time on Oct 29 (about 6 AM ET) and caused a rockfall underground. No one died. The injury count differs: the operator's statement via Xinhua says 15 workers were hurt, while Reuters says three. Underground mining is paused pending a safety review, with no restart timeline. Separately, daily truck convoys to Ganqimaodu have fallen to about 4 from 12–13 over two weeks; Mongolia Daily reports a company estimate of a US$300M revenue hit, rising to as much as US$1.2bn if the checks last through December. Oyu Tolgoi made 113,500t of copper in Q3, about 56% of Rio's copper, so Rio's 800–870kt guidance now looks exposed. After El Teniente and Grasberg, this is a third big block cave in trouble. Mongolia / copper
XinhuaMINING.COM (Reuters)MINING.COM, border
Ore Daily PerspectivePaused Oyu Tolgoi underground carried 70% of copper fed to the mill

Rio Tinto has stopped underground mining at the mine that made 56% of its copper last quarter. The underground ore carries most of that copper. China's border checks were already slowing exports.

~70%Underground share of copper fed to the Oyu Tolgoi mill, Q388.9 kt of 126.6 kt, by Ore Daily's calculation
56%Oyu Tolgoi's share of Rio's copper, Q3113.5 kt of 204.5 kt
~4Concentrate truck convoys a day at the borderDown from 12–13, Oyu Tolgoi LLC told AP

Where the copper comes from

Oyu Tolgoi produced 113.5 kt of copper in concentrate in the third quarter, up 27% on the year, Rio Tinto's Oct. 14 report shows. That is about 1.2 kt a day, or 8.6 kt a week, by Ore Daily's calculation. It was 56% of Rio's consolidated copper output.

The underground mine drives it. It sent 3.77 Mt of ore to the mill at 2.36% copper in the quarter. The open pit sent 7.39 Mt at 0.51%. The underground ore held about 88.9 kt of copper and the pit ore about 37.7 kt. That puts about 70% of the copper entering the mill on the underground side, by Ore Daily's calculation, up from 61% a year earlier.

Rio said this week it paused underground work after seismic activity on a fault zone shook the mine. Three employees were hurt and no one died, Reuters reported. Rio gave no restart date.

Copper contained in ore fed to the Oyu Tolgoi mill, by quarter, from Rio Tinto ore and grade data. Underground ore carried 62.0 kt in Q3 2025, 74.9 kt in Q4 2025, 75.6 kt in Q1 2026, 74.4 kt in Q2 2026 and 88.9 kt in Q3 2026. Open pit ore carried 39.3, 43.6, 39.6, 35.2 and 37.7 kt. The underground share rose from 61% to 70%.Copper contained in ore fed to the Oyu Tolgoi mill, by quarter, from Rio Tinto ore and grade data. Underground ore carried 62.0 kt in Q3 2025, 74.9 kt in Q4 2025, 75.6 kt in Q1 2026, 74.4 kt in Q2 2026 and 88.9 kt in Q3 2026. Open pit ore carried 39.3, 43.6, 39.6, 35.2 and 37.7 kt. The underground share rose from 61% to 70%.

Two problems at once

Exports were already slowing. Truck convoys through China's Ganqimaodu crossing fell to about four a day from the usual 12–13 over the past two weeks, Oyu Tolgoi LLC told the AP. Concentrate exports are down about 70%. China introduced in-vehicle facial recognition for truck drivers there in August, and the port work could run to the end of December, AP reported.

Sales trailed output before either problem. Oyu Tolgoi sold 106.8 kt of copper in concentrate in the third quarter, 6.7 kt less than it produced, by Ore Daily's calculation. Local media put the export losses at about $300M, rising to $1.2bn if the checks last the year, AP reported. Oyu Tolgoi LLC did not confirm those figures.

What to watch

Rio kept its 2026 copper guidance of 800–870 kt on Oct. 14, before both events. It produced 646.3 kt in the first nine months, which leaves 154–224 kt for the fourth quarter, by Ore Daily's calculation. Rio's operations outside Oyu Tolgoi produced 91.0 kt in the third quarter.

Oyu Tolgoi ran at about 450 kt a year in the third quarter, Rio said. That is roughly 2% of the 23.0 Mt of copper mined worldwide in 2025, based on USGS estimates. Rio still targets about 500 kt a year from 2028 to 2036. Mongolia's finance minister, Mendsaikhan Zagdjav, said ministers were told to visit the crossing and meet Chinese officials, AP reported.

Sources: Rio Tinto Q3 2026 operations review (SEC) · Rio Tinto Q3 2026 (ASX) · Reuters via MINING.COM, Oct 29 · MINING.COM, Oct 29 · AP via Yahoo, Oct 29 · Australian Mining Review, Oct 30 · USGS MCS 2026

Ore Daily analysis of public data. Figures are as reported by the sources.

2
Vale's Q3 net profit falls 53% to US$1.255bn, and iron ore output misses forecasts
Output was 88.4Mt (-6%, against 90.1Mt consensus) as Serra Norte had less rock available. The realised fines price was US$85.1/t (-10%), and all-in cost rose 21% to US$60.4/t. Adjusted EBITDA was US$3.51bn (-20%), in line with expectations, and revenue rose 2% to US$10.6bn. Copper output fell 6% to 85.5kt during the Sossego mill rebuild, but copper EBITDA rose 66% to US$1.02bn on a US$15,314/t realised price. 2026 guidance: iron ore at the low end of 335–345Mt, copper and nickel in the upper half, capex at the low end of US$5.4–5.7bn. The ADR closed at a 12-month low of US$11.18. The call is at 10:00 ET today. Brazil / iron ore, copper, nickel
Mining.com.au (Reuters)Brazil Stock Guide
Vale's low end is a flat year. Nine-month iron ore is 242.4 Mt (69.7 Mt, 84.3 Mt and 88.4 Mt by quarter). The 335 Mt low end needs 92.6 Mt in Q4, 5% above Q3, and would land just under 2025's 336 Mt. Q1's realised fines price was $95.8/t, so Q3's $85.1 is 11% lower. Copper runs ahead of plan: Q1 output of 102.3 kt was already 27–29% of the 350–380 kt 2026 guide.
3
UpdateCodelco fires eight people, including executives, over over-reported 2024–25 output
Those dismissed include managers at Chuquicamata, Ministro Hales and Salvador and staff at headquarters. Salvador general manager Patricio Viveros is out, replaced by Felipe Lagno. Codelco says Ministro Hales and Salvador appear to have both claimed the same production. The firings come a week before the Nov 5 EGM. Chile / copper
Mining.com.au (Reuters)Bloomberg
4
Indonesia says its 2027 nickel ore quota (RKAB) will be lower than this year's
ESDM mineral and coal director general Tri Winarno said on Oct 29 that the 2027 quota will come in below the revised 2026 quota of about 290–300M wmt, which was itself raised from 260–270M wmt. He said the global nickel surplus will be taken into account but gave no number. This is the first official signal of a smaller 2027 quota. Applications close Nov 15. Indonesia / nickel
SMM
Quota talk hasn't reached the nickel price. Nickel at $15,588 is 10% under its 2026 average of $17,323 and 3% above 2025's $15,161 (nickel data). Indonesia mined 2.6 Mt of 3.9 Mt in 2025, 67% of world supply (USGS). Each 1% of Indonesia's 2025 mine output is about 26 kt of nickel, or 0.7% of world supply, on USGS figures.
5
Eldorado cuts 2026 gold guidance 18% on new Skouries setbacks; shares fall 6.1%
Guidance is now 425–475koz (from 495–600koz), and Skouries' contribution falls to 10–35koz (from 60–100koz). Skouries capital rises US$110M to US$1.43bn. AISC at existing operations is US$1,975–2,125/oz. Adjusted EPS was 49¢ against 54¢ consensus. A Jefferies analyst says the cuts "reinforce execution concerns heading into 2027." Greece, Türkiye / gold, copper
Northern Miner
Eldorado's low end needs a 7% lift. Nine-month gold of 311,325 oz leaves 113.7–163.7 koz for Q4 under the new 425–475 koz range: 7% above Q3's 106,351 oz at the low end, 54% at the top. At spot $3,986 and Q3's $2,050 AISC, the margin is $1,936/oz, 15% below Q3's $2,276 on a $4,326 realised price. Q3 free cash flow was negative $191.1M.

Chart of the day

Indonesia mined 67% of the world's nickel in 2025: world nickel mine production by country, 2025 estimatesIndonesia mined 67% of the world's nickel in 2025: world nickel mine production by country, 2025 estimates
Indonesia mined an estimated 2.6 Mt of nickel in 2025, up 13% from 2024, out of a world total of about 3.9 Mt; the Philippines (270,000 t) and Russia (200,000 t) were next. That is the output Jakarta's smaller 2027 RKAB ore quota would bear on.USGS MCS 2026

Government & regulatory9

UpdateRussia's Duma passes the windfall-profits tax on miners in first reading, unanimously
Speaker Volodin announced the vote; no count was published. The base is extracted volume times the amount by which the 2026–28 average world price exceeds the 2025 average. The 2025 base is indexed by 1.1 for 2027 and 1.21 for 2028, and no tax is due if prices rose less than 10%. The tax is capped at 15% of revenue per mineral minus mineral extraction tax already paid. It takes effect Jan 1, 2027 and is paid annually through 2029. Russia / nickel, PGMs, gold
InterfaxVedomosti
At today's prices, Russia's tax hits gold and platinum, not nickel or palladium. Against 2025 averages (gold, PGMs, nickel), gold at $3,986 is up 16%, platinum at $1,458 14%, nickel at $15,588 3%, and palladium at $992.50 is down 14%. The 2027 trigger is a 10% rise. On those 2025 averages the 2027 thresholds are $3,784 for gold, $1,408 for platinum, $1,265 for palladium and $16,677 for nickel. The tax uses annual average prices, so one day's spot is only a guide.
Russia's Finance Ministry says it has no proposal for an excise on imported steel
Deputy minister Aleksey Sazanov said the Industry Ministry has not submitted one (our translation), so no Tax Code change is planned. Separately, Deputy PM Manturov urged metallurgists to shorten repair times after emergencies (headline only). Russia / steel
Interfax
Lula's re-election keeps Brazil's rare-earth policy on its current track
Analysts expect rare-earth prospects to stay open to all investors, with more local processing required. Serra Verde, now owned by USA Rare Earth, has US$1.6bn in US financing, and the US government holds 10%. Chatham House's Bruno Binetti says "China retains a close partner." Brazil / rare earths
Mining.com.au (Reuters)
Zambia names Brenda Tambatamba mines minister (Oct 28)
She was previously labour minister and a sustainability manager at Barrick's Lumwana mine. She inherits the target of 3Mt/yr of copper by 2031; 2025 output was ~890,300t. Zambia / copper
Mining WeeklySMM
Zambia's target means 22% growth a year. 3 Mt by 2031 from 890,346 t in 2025 is 3.4 times, or 22% compound growth for six years. 3 Mt would be 13% of 2025 world mine supply (USGS). Zambia's 2025 output was 3.9% of the 23.0 Mt world total (USGS). Even at the 1 Mt-plus the government expects for 2026, nearly 2 Mt would still have to be added in five years.
Philippines DENR lays out a shift from raw ore exports to domestic processing under EO 122
It names 11 priority critical minerals and says existing contracts will be honoured. Assistant secretary Michael Cabalda: "We cannot jump straight to the end of the product manufacturing overnight." This is a phased plan, not an export ban, consistent with the Palace's Oct 27 line. Philippines / nickel
Mining.com.au
Chile's Congress passes Kast's first mining bill (Oct 28, missed earlier)
It eliminates the progressive mining patent fee and defers payments to 2027; it now goes to be signed into law. Chile / mining policy
BioBioChile
Kazakhstan orders a state strategic uranium reserve (Oct 29, 3:46 AM ET, just before the window)
PM Bektenov instructed Samruk-Kazyna to create it; no volumes were given. Kazakhstan / uranium
Trend
Mining financiers at IMARC say governments should not pick critical-minerals winners
Australia has earmarked at least A$13bn across five or more programmes, and the EU has proposed €10bn. Argonaut's Edward Rigg says picking winners "is not a skill which is held in government." Australia, EU / critical minerals
MINING.COM (Reuters)
China MOFCOM's Oct 29 press conference said nothing on export controls
It covered the CIIE and the China–Peru FTA upgrade (in force Nov 1), and warned the EU against "discriminatory restrictions" (our translation). No new export-control announcement was found after No. 50 of Oct 19. China
MOFCOM

Companies & deals10

Capstone Copper Q3: copper output falls 18% to 45,218t, and 2026 guidance moves to the low end of 200–230kt
C1 guidance moves to the high end of US$2.45–2.75/lb, and capex rises US$40M to US$830M. Adjusted EBITDA was a record US$358.3M and net income US$98.5M. Mantoverde reached a record 53,412tpd in October after the MV Optimized tie-ins. The Santo Domingo FID is expected in Q1 2027. Cathode output was cut because high-calcium ore is uneconomic at current sulphuric acid prices, an early casualty of Chile's acid squeeze. Chile, US / copper
Investing News
Capstone needs its best quarter of the year. Nine-month copper is 144,939 t; the 200 kt low end needs 55.1 kt in Q4, 22% above Q3's 45,218 t and 6% above Q2's 51,759 t. Acid is the squeeze: Mantos Blancos paid $316/t against $186/t a year earlier, up 70%. Margins still widened: a $6.61/lb realised price less $2.95 C1 is $3.66/lb, 77% above Q3 2025's $2.07 ($4.49 less $2.42).
Alamos delays the Island Gold shaft to mid-2027, at about US$877M against an US$835M budget
Q3 output was 119koz (-16%) at AISC of US$1,956/oz (+42%). Guidance of 510–560koz is unchanged, and Alamos still targets ~1Moz/yr by 2030. Canada / gold
Northern Miner
Rio Tinto weighs a roughly US$1bn Fénix II lithium plant in Argentina, and is looking at copper options there
It would sit at Hombre Muerto and be submitted to RIGI in 2027, with FID possibly near the end of the decade. Two plants opened Oct 28 (~US$1.4bn, 25ktpa). CEO Simon Trott: "It's under consideration; it would be the next phase of expansion." Argentina / lithium
Global Banking & Finance (Reuters)
Centerra Q3: 75,429oz gold, 12.8Mlb copper, AISC US$1,775/oz
Mount Milligan AISC guidance is cut to US$1,100–1,200/oz. Net earnings were US$88.7M, and buybacks a record US$53.0M. Thompson Creek moly is targeted for first production in mid-2027 (capex US$425–450M). Canada, Türkiye / gold, copper, moly
SEC
Buenaventura Q3 net income rises to US$268.4M (from US$179.0M), and San Gabriel has restarted processing
EBITDA including affiliates was US$509.5M. Copper from direct operations rose 7% while silver fell 21%. Net cash is US$307.3M and the dividend US$0.5508/sh. San Gabriel restarted in late September after the tailings-filtration fix. Peru / gold, silver, copper
Investing News (Business Wire)
American Tungsten & Antimony (ASX: AT4) completes its purchase of the Del Sol antimony refinery in Nevada
It paid US$2.6M in cash plus ~1.02bn shares, 255.7M options and 803.6M performance rights, with up to US$20M more in throughput-linked payments; the water pollution permit transferred with the plant. CEO Casper Adson says the refinery "has already demonstrated the ability to produce high-purity antimony metal." White Spar (Arizona) is still to complete. US / antimony
Discovery AlertMining.com.au
Resolute says Syama in Mali has "largely stabilised."
Q3 output was 31,777oz and Q4 guidance is 45–50koz. Recoveries should rise to ~80% from ~73% once an on-site emulsion plant starts in November, and permit renewals are progressing. Mali / gold
Mining.com.au
Appian plans to deploy about US$2bn in Africa as part of a US$5–7bn global programme
Its preferred countries are Morocco, Namibia and Botswana. Omitiomire in Namibia would cost over US$400M and produce 26–30ktpa of copper. An IFC-backed fund targets up to US$1bn. Africa / copper
Northern Miner (Reuters)
Italy's top court upholds the shutdown order for the ex-Ilva Taranto blast furnaces
The ruling may derail the sale of ADI; the binding-bid deadline is now Nov 9, with Jindal seen as frontrunner. Italy / steel
Mining.com.au (Reuters)
EY's annual survey of 400 executives ranks operational complexity as mining's top risk for 2027
Public financing commitments for critical minerals reached ~US$65bn in 2025, more than four times the 2023 level. Global
MINING.COM

Earnings calls2

First shaft production in Q2 2027Dominique Girard, EVP & COO, Agnico Eagle (Q3 call, Oct 29)
"We are on target for the first production via the shaft in Q2 2027, with over 70% of the construction completed." Management said diesel adds about US$50–60/oz to Q4 costs and up to ~US$80/oz for 2026, and it is using 5–6% inflation as its 2027 planning base. A Detour underground bulk sample is due H1 2027, with possible underground production from 2028. The CFO called returning 50% of free cash flow in 2027 "a reasonable threshold." Capital Markets Day is Nov 18. Analysts pushed on capital intensity and 2027 costs after the Malartic cut. The transcript is partly AI-generated.
Motley Fool transcript
Great Bear capex will exceed the PEAWilliam Dunford, Kinross (Q3 call, Oct 29)
"We do expect capital to be higher than the PEA." An updated Great Bear capex estimate comes in H1 2027. Management rejected Scotiabank's 20–30% overrun scenario but said capex would not double. About 50% of 2027 diesel is hedged at US$60–65/bbl. Kinross bought back ~US$100M of shares after quarter-end and prefers buybacks to dividend increases. The transcript is AI-generated.
Motley Fool transcript
Quote of the day
We would estimate 150-170 million tons of supply is currently cash negative at today's spot prices.
— Lachlan Shaw, co-head of Australian mining research, UBS, on iron ore below $90 · MINING.COM (Bloomberg), Oct 29

Markets7

Gold falls below $4,000 after hot US data
Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualised (consensus 3.2%), September core PCE was 3.1% y/y (from 3.0%) and jobless claims were 194k. Spot gold was ~$4,024.60 (-1.03%) and silver $52.18 (-3.1%) late on Oct 29. At ~2:43 AM ET Oct 30, gold was $3,987.20 (-0.83%), silver $51.27, platinum $1,458.85 and palladium $986.08; all are headed for monthly falls. The gold/silver ratio is ~77, an 11-month high. CME December hike odds were 83.3% by 1 PM London on Oct 29.
Kitco PM report, Oct 29FinanceFeeds, Oct 30BullionVault
Copper eases from a two-week high
LME 3M was $14,363 (-0.8%) at 1705 GMT Oct 29, and $14,320.50 (-0.25%) at 0310 GMT Oct 30; SHFE was 109,050 yuan. Weighing on it: AI-demand doubts, Brent up after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, and COMEX-linked US stocks of 726,039t (+60% YTD). China mainstream inventories fell 24,900t w/w to ~80,000t (vs ~180,000t a year ago).
MINING.COM (Reuters)Business Recorder (Reuters)SMM
UpdateThe Yangshan premium comes off its record
the warrant premium was $200/t on Oct 30 (range $185–215), flat on the day after easing from $205 on Oct 28. SMM says premiums "lacked further upward momentum" as restocking ended.
SMM
Iron ore stays below $90
SGX futures have closed below $90 twice in two weeks, against a May peak of $111.60, and were at $91.50 on Thursday morning. Producers of 15–20Mt/yr have already cut or signalled cuts. Bloomberg says ore is heading for its lowest month-end close since October 2022.
MINING.COM (Bloomberg)Bloomberg
Other base metals, Oct 29
zinc $3,882 (+0.5%), aluminium $3,067, nickel $15,490 (-0.7%), tin $49,980 (-1.5%). SHFE nickel 2612 was 117,190 yuan on Oct 30 (-3,390 w/w); SMM says Indonesian cut talk has not yet turned into real supply loss.
Mining.com.au (Reuters)SMM
NdPr slips from its October peak
PrNd metal is at 860,000–870,000 yuan/t (peak 903,000), and oxide ended the month at 711,500 (-4.37%). Producer margins briefly turned positive as costs fell faster than prices.
SMM
Overseas lithium compounds slump more than 20% in October
battery-grade carbonate CIF CJK fell 22.1% and hydroxide 23.4%.
SMM

From X & analysts6

2027 copper forecast raised 7.3% to $14,012/t, with a bigger surplusReuters poll of 25 analysts
The 2027 surplus is now seen at 92,000t (July poll: 50,000t) and 2026 at 125,000t. Aluminium flips from a 720,000t deficit in 2026 to a 410,000t surplus in 2027, and the 2027 zinc forecast rises 11% to $3,487. The consensus sits ~4% below spot.
Reuters poll (via Rallies)
Copper sentiment "relatively more cautious rather than outright bearish"Patrick Jones, JP Morgan
Investors see US tariff inaction as the main downside risk, because it would shrink the US import pull and hand pricing power to Chinese buyers. That fits Yangshan stalling at $200.
MINING.COM (Reuters)
Gold stuck at $3,900–4,250 as carry costs riseBart Melek, TD Securities
He sees silver at $50–55. On a hawkish Fed: "Carry will be higher, and so will the opportunity cost of holding gold."
Kitco, Oct 29
Higher oil acts "as a tax on global economic activity"Angela Durrant, Commonwealth Bank
She ties oil above $100 to weaker industrial demand for metals. BNP Paribas, in the same report, says few market participants believed AI was a significant driver of copper demand.
Business Recorder (Reuters), Oct 30
Three block caves with "material production issues"@respeculator (X, Oct 30)
El Teniente, Grasberg and now Oyu Tolgoi. The point is that block caving accounts for a large share of future copper growth.
X
Colombia "open for business," eyes 1.5Mt of copperAri Sussman, Collective Mining (X, Oct 29)
He is reacting to Vice Minister Luis Madriñan's Oct 28 outline of 30-year contract rules and preferential tax rates (figures not yet set) for projects over US$150M, with a target of lifting copper output from 600,000t to 1.5Mt.
XGBM (Reuters)

Drill hits6

18.9ft @ 0.536% WO3, 1.29 oz/t Ag American Tungsten (TSXV: TUNG), IMA Mine, Idaho
New vein discovery, the 360 Portal vein (drill), hole AT26-58S from 151.3ft. AT26-52S hit 5ft at 0.475% WO3. True width is estimated at 65–90%, and two vein holes are pending. Tungsten
Yahoo Finance
36.0m @ 2.63% Cu Gladiator Metals (TSXV: GLAD), Cowley, Whitehorse Copper, Yukon
Expansion of the high-grade Southern Limb, which three fences now trace for ~50m of strike and is open (drill), hole CPG-176 from 68.0m, including 20.0m at 3.61% Cu. CPG-178 hit 52.2m at 1.17% Cu. True widths are unknown, and there is no resource yet. Copper
StockTitan (Newsfile)
13.59m @ 10.33 g/t Au Miata Metals (TSXV: MMET), Sela Creek, Suriname
Step-out from JT-025 at Jons Trend (drill), hole 26DDH-JT-026 from 184.41m, including 3.56m at 37.62 g/t, with visible gold. Estimated true width is 10.41m. Other holes returned only narrow intervals. Gold
GlobeNewswire
14.00m @ 10.99% Pb+Zn, 17.0 g/t Ag Cantex Mine Development (TSXV: CD), North Rackla, Yukon
Main Zone strike extended to 2.67km and still open (drill), hole YKDD26-356 from 218.00m, including 4.00m at 29.45% Pb+Zn, 44.3 g/t Ag. Germanium assays and 16 regional holes are pending. Silver, lead, zinc
Newswire.ca
8.9m @ 75 g/t Ag, 2.8% Zn BMC Minerals (ASX: BMC), Rhyolite Peak, Kudz Ze Kayah, Yukon
~50m westward extension at a prospect outside any resource, ~1.2km from ABM (drill), hole K26-608 from 39.5m, including 1.8m at 265 g/t Ag, 9.6% Zn, 1.5% Cu. This is a single hole (true width 8.6m), and drilling is paused. Silver, zinc
Discovery Alert
1.15m @ 2.76 g/t Au, 855 g/t Ag Mithril Silver and Gold (ASX: MTH), Copalquin, Durango
Step-outs that extend the Target 4 vein from 550m to 700m (drill), hole CO26-006 from 104.75m. CO26-009 hit 0.5m at 1,520 g/t Ag. The intervals are narrow, true widths are unknown and eight holes are pending. Mexico / silver, gold
Discovery Alert
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Ongoing, no change1

Antamina: no restart after the Oct 27 fatality. Teck Highland Valley strike: no settlement. Anglo–Teck: SAMR approval still pending. Section 232 copper: undecided. China export controls Nos. 49–51 take effect Nov 18.

Coming up, next 7 days4

Fri Oct 30
Vale Q3 call 10:00 ET; Buenaventura call 12:00 ET; Cameco Q3; Chile INE September copper output; USTR Section 301 suspension-extension comments due 5 PM ET (docket USTR-2026-0694).
Sat Oct 31
China official PMIs. Sun Nov 1: China–Peru FTA upgrade takes effect.
Mon Nov 2
Ero Copper Q3. Tue Nov 3: US midterms. Wed Nov 4: Lundin Mining Q3 (after close).
Thu Nov 5
Codelco EGM; IAMGOLD Q3; Critical Metals/European Lithium implementation. Fri Nov 6: Critical Metals Nasdaq move.

Disclaimer: This content uses AI to aggregate news from public sources. Summaries may contain errors and figures are as reported by the original source. Check the linked source before relying on any item. Not investment advice.

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