Ore Daily data · 2026-10-26

Chile's moly is shrinking. The price isn't.

Chilean output of the copper byproduct is at its lowest since at least 2014. Prices are near a record.

−13.9%Chile moly output, Jan–Aug, y/y24,359 t · lowest since at least 2014

−31%August output, y/y2,551 t

$78,815Price per tonne, Sep avg+42% y/y · IMF

Chile molybdenum output, January to August each year 2014-2026, fell from 41.9 kt in 2017 to 24.4 kt in 2026, while the IMF molybdenum price average rose from $15.5k/t to $65.9k/t

Chile's molybdenum output fell 13.9% in January–August from a year earlier, to 24,359 t, data from national statistics agency INE show. That is the lowest for the period since at least 2014 and 42% below 2017. The slide is speeding up: August output dropped 31% year on year, to 2,551 t.

Prices have moved the other way. Molybdenum averaged $78,815/t in September, IMF data show, up 42% year on year and 18% since June. Only February 2023 was higher in the IMF series. The January–August average, $65,949/t, is more than four times the 2017 level.

“We believe that it is reasonable to expect the deficit to persist into 2027”

— BMO Capital Markets analysts, Oct 8 · MINING.COM

Copper's problem, moly's price

Most molybdenum is mined alongside copper; BMO puts the byproduct share at about 60%. So Chile's copper slide feeds through. Cochilco data show Chilean copper output down 7.7% in January–August. Escondida lost the most volume, and El Teniente and Spence each fell more than 20%.

Peru, the other big Andean supplier, is not filling the gap. Its January–August molybdenum output was 25,617 t, essentially flat year on year, according to the energy and mines ministry. That puts Peru ahead of Chile for the period for the second time in three years.

Deficit call, buyer pushback

BMO expects a sixth straight annual molybdenum deficit in 2027, citing depleted inventories, little new supply and flat or falling South American output.

The spot market is less sure. Asian oxide prices peaked at $33.35/lb on Oct 8–9 and had eased to $33.00/lb by Oct 21, according to Shanghai Metals Market. SMM said Chinese buyers had not returned after the National Day holiday and were resisting high-priced feed. A third Chinese mine tender had also failed.

Supply risks in Chile remain. A fatal accident on Oct 1 suspended work in part of Codelco's Radomiro Tomic mine, and two unions at Centinela went on strike on Oct 7. Centinela said its production plans were unchanged.

Freeport-McMoRan, a major molybdenum producer, reports third-quarter results on Oct 27.

Sources Chile & Peru output data (INE, MINEM) · Molybdenum price history (IMF) · BMO via MINING.COM · Cochilco via CNN Chile · SMM, Oct 21 · SMM, Oct 19